I purchased the iPhone 3G 16 gigabyte model this Friday. The AT&T store was amazingly unprepared for the crowds. The Apple Store and the AT&T store had a policy of only letting a small group of people into the store at a time. Then both only stocked a limited amount of iPhone 3G models.
On top of all of these well documented problems logistical problems, the issues that are not talked about on the street is the software doesn't work. After my iPhone locked up at least 25 to 40 times (this is not an exaggeration) it finally presented me with the now famous "Black Screen of Death".
The casing after 48 hours is already showing cracks. It is unbelievable how this new iPhone 3G has set up Apple to fall violently on its face. They may sell 10 million iPhones but I guarantee that the price of the stock will be eventually be affected by the returns.
Long term this is going to impact the brand. Apple was known as the flawless alternative. I have heard a lot of talk in the coffee shops and in the malls of people employing the Microsoft, "wait until they work out the bugs" approach.
Apple may jump up to $200 a share (and with the upcoming unannounced release of the new Mac Book Pro in 3rd or 4th quarter of this year it is all but guaranteed) but Apple stock will eventually plummet sometime around this same time. With Steve Jobs health in great question, Apple release defective products, and its brand being harmed I would say ride it cautiously in the short term and sell sell sell this one time great stock in the long term.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Sonic Money Predicted it - Microsoft Walks from Yahoo
Microsoft withdraws offer for Yahoo
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) walked away from its bid to buy Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O) on Saturday after the Internet company turned down its offer to raise the price by $5 billion to $47.5 billion.
Microsoft's offer was for $33 a share but Yahoo would not lower its demand below $37, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said. The software company initially bid $31 per share for Yahoo more than three months ago.
"We believe the economics demanded by Yahoo do not make sense for us, and it is in the best interests of Microsoft stockholders, employees and other stakeholders to withdraw our proposal," Ballmer said in a statement.
Analysts say Yahoo has overplayed its hand and they expect the Web pioneer's shares to fall as much as 30 percent to $20 levels when Nasdaq trading resumes on Monday. The stock rose nearly 7 percent to $28.67 on Friday on hopes of an agreement between Microsoft and Yahoo.
"Wow. I'm shocked Yahoo wasn't more reasonable. The stock will probably go down at least $5 on Monday. It is surprising that Ballmer walked away instead of trying a hostile bid at $33," said Walter Price, a senior portfolio manager at RCM fund management company in San Francisco, which had 21 million Microsoft shares and 2 million Yahoo shares as of the end of December.
Laura Martin, a senior analyst at Soleil Securities, said she expected a number of shareholder lawsuits against Yahoo.
"The Yahoo guys want too much money for their company. We think $33 a share is fair in the context of the weakening economic environment and adverse advertising trends," she said. "They've prioritized employees over shareholders in the hopes that someday they can create more than $8 billion of value, even if they have no track record of doing so," she said.
Some Wall Street analysts also have said Microsoft could pull its bid as a negotiating strategy aimed at putting pressure on Yahoo to eventually accept a future offer.
GOOGLE DEAL NEXT WEEK?
Yahoo Chairman Roy Bostock said in a statement the company believed from the beginning that Microsoft's offer undervalued it, and the board was "pleased that so many of our shareholders joined us in expressing that view."
He said Yahoo was pursuing "strategic opportunities" but gave no details.
Yahoo has courted possible deals with Time Warner Inc's (TWX.N) AOL Internet division or News Corp's (NWSa.N) MySpace online social network, and tested a search advertising partnership with Google Inc (GOOG.O). A partnership with Google may be announced as early as next week, a person with knowledge of discussions told Reuters.
"With the distraction of Microsoft's unsolicited proposal now behind us, we will be able to focus all of our energies on executing the most important transition in our history so that we can maximize our potential to the benefit of our shareholders, employees, partners and users," Yahoo co-founder and Chief Executive Jerry Yang said in a statement.
Jordan Rohan, founder of digital media advisory firm Clearmeadow Partners, said Yahoo could name Time Warner as a partner or buy AOL to put a positive spin on the situation, but neither option would give as good a payoff to shareholders.
"Yahoo management and board overplayed its hand. Shareholders were cheated out of a victory," Rohan said. "I think Yahoo forgot what it felt like to have a share price under $20. They may be reminded soon."
Ballmer cited Yahoo's Google plans as one reason Microsoft was walking away rather than mounting a hostile offer.
"We regard with particular concern your apparent planning to respond to a 'hostile' bid by pursuing a new arrangement that would involve or lead to the outsourcing to Google of key paid Internet search terms offered by Yahoo today," Ballmer said in a letter to Yang, made public on Saturday. "In our view, such an arrangement with the dominant search provider would make an acquisition of Yahoo undesirable to us."
REALLY WALKING?
Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo to gain a stronger foothold in its battle with Google, which is expanding rapidly into the software maker's own turf with new Web-based applications.
Technology analysts say Microsoft may not really walk away from Yahoo, and Saturday's move could parallel Oracle Corp's (ORCL.O) strategy in winning over BEA Systems Inc (BEAS.O). Oracle pulled its offer in October 2007, leading BEA shares to fall 6 percent. Despite the tough talk, the companies reached an agreement in January this year.
Although Microsoft has not succeeded in sealing a deal, tough talk by Ballmer has already brought Yahoo to the negotiating table.
According to a person familiar with Microsoft's thinking, Yahoo's advisers said initially it would not negotiate with Microsoft for anything less than $40 a share. But amid threats by Microsoft to launch a hostile takeover, Yang suggested a price of $38 a share, the person said.
On Saturday, Yang and Yahoo co-founder David Filo met Ballmer and Microsoft's Platforms & Services Division President Kevin Johnson in Seattle, where they communicated that Yahoo's board was willing to cut a deal at $37 a share, although the two co-founders remained committed to a dollar more per share, the source said.
Price was not the only stumbling block, another person familiar with the discussions said. Microsoft had also failed to respond adequately to antitrust regulatory concerns that Yahoo raised at several meetings, said the source who was not authorized to speak on the record.
Yahoo also wanted "value-certainty" assurances the value of Microsoft's offer would remain the same when the deal, if it did get done, closed, the person said.
(Additional reporting by Michele Gershberg, Kenneth Li and Tiffany Wu in New York, Muralikumar Anantharaman in Boston and Peter Henderson in Los Angeles; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) walked away from its bid to buy Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O) on Saturday after the Internet company turned down its offer to raise the price by $5 billion to $47.5 billion.
Microsoft's offer was for $33 a share but Yahoo would not lower its demand below $37, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said. The software company initially bid $31 per share for Yahoo more than three months ago.
"We believe the economics demanded by Yahoo do not make sense for us, and it is in the best interests of Microsoft stockholders, employees and other stakeholders to withdraw our proposal," Ballmer said in a statement.
Analysts say Yahoo has overplayed its hand and they expect the Web pioneer's shares to fall as much as 30 percent to $20 levels when Nasdaq trading resumes on Monday. The stock rose nearly 7 percent to $28.67 on Friday on hopes of an agreement between Microsoft and Yahoo.
"Wow. I'm shocked Yahoo wasn't more reasonable. The stock will probably go down at least $5 on Monday. It is surprising that Ballmer walked away instead of trying a hostile bid at $33," said Walter Price, a senior portfolio manager at RCM fund management company in San Francisco, which had 21 million Microsoft shares and 2 million Yahoo shares as of the end of December.
Laura Martin, a senior analyst at Soleil Securities, said she expected a number of shareholder lawsuits against Yahoo.
"The Yahoo guys want too much money for their company. We think $33 a share is fair in the context of the weakening economic environment and adverse advertising trends," she said. "They've prioritized employees over shareholders in the hopes that someday they can create more than $8 billion of value, even if they have no track record of doing so," she said.
Some Wall Street analysts also have said Microsoft could pull its bid as a negotiating strategy aimed at putting pressure on Yahoo to eventually accept a future offer.
GOOGLE DEAL NEXT WEEK?
Yahoo Chairman Roy Bostock said in a statement the company believed from the beginning that Microsoft's offer undervalued it, and the board was "pleased that so many of our shareholders joined us in expressing that view."
He said Yahoo was pursuing "strategic opportunities" but gave no details.
Yahoo has courted possible deals with Time Warner Inc's (TWX.N) AOL Internet division or News Corp's (NWSa.N) MySpace online social network, and tested a search advertising partnership with Google Inc (GOOG.O). A partnership with Google may be announced as early as next week, a person with knowledge of discussions told Reuters.
"With the distraction of Microsoft's unsolicited proposal now behind us, we will be able to focus all of our energies on executing the most important transition in our history so that we can maximize our potential to the benefit of our shareholders, employees, partners and users," Yahoo co-founder and Chief Executive Jerry Yang said in a statement.
Jordan Rohan, founder of digital media advisory firm Clearmeadow Partners, said Yahoo could name Time Warner as a partner or buy AOL to put a positive spin on the situation, but neither option would give as good a payoff to shareholders.
"Yahoo management and board overplayed its hand. Shareholders were cheated out of a victory," Rohan said. "I think Yahoo forgot what it felt like to have a share price under $20. They may be reminded soon."
Ballmer cited Yahoo's Google plans as one reason Microsoft was walking away rather than mounting a hostile offer.
"We regard with particular concern your apparent planning to respond to a 'hostile' bid by pursuing a new arrangement that would involve or lead to the outsourcing to Google of key paid Internet search terms offered by Yahoo today," Ballmer said in a letter to Yang, made public on Saturday. "In our view, such an arrangement with the dominant search provider would make an acquisition of Yahoo undesirable to us."
REALLY WALKING?
Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo to gain a stronger foothold in its battle with Google, which is expanding rapidly into the software maker's own turf with new Web-based applications.
Technology analysts say Microsoft may not really walk away from Yahoo, and Saturday's move could parallel Oracle Corp's (ORCL.O) strategy in winning over BEA Systems Inc (BEAS.O). Oracle pulled its offer in October 2007, leading BEA shares to fall 6 percent. Despite the tough talk, the companies reached an agreement in January this year.
Although Microsoft has not succeeded in sealing a deal, tough talk by Ballmer has already brought Yahoo to the negotiating table.
According to a person familiar with Microsoft's thinking, Yahoo's advisers said initially it would not negotiate with Microsoft for anything less than $40 a share. But amid threats by Microsoft to launch a hostile takeover, Yang suggested a price of $38 a share, the person said.
On Saturday, Yang and Yahoo co-founder David Filo met Ballmer and Microsoft's Platforms & Services Division President Kevin Johnson in Seattle, where they communicated that Yahoo's board was willing to cut a deal at $37 a share, although the two co-founders remained committed to a dollar more per share, the source said.
Price was not the only stumbling block, another person familiar with the discussions said. Microsoft had also failed to respond adequately to antitrust regulatory concerns that Yahoo raised at several meetings, said the source who was not authorized to speak on the record.
Yahoo also wanted "value-certainty" assurances the value of Microsoft's offer would remain the same when the deal, if it did get done, closed, the person said.
(Additional reporting by Michele Gershberg, Kenneth Li and Tiffany Wu in New York, Muralikumar Anantharaman in Boston and Peter Henderson in Los Angeles; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Buying Stocks On Margin
Buying stocks on margin can result in big losses, but when done correctly, it can mean big earnings too. While it may seem that the risks of buying on margin far outweigh the advantages, there are many reasons why people buy stocks on margin, even though it may cost them in the long run.
What Does Is Mean to Buy On Margin? Buying stocks on margin, to put it simply, is doubling your buying power buy borrowing up to 50% of a stock's price from your broker. In order to buy stocks on margin, there are a certain number of things to keep in mind. First of all, certain stocks can't be bought on margin. For example, any stock that is less than $5 a share (also called penny or micro-cap stocks) cannot be purchased on margin. In addition, IPOs (Initial Public Offerings, or companies that have recently gone public) also can't be purchased on margin until they've been on the market a certain amount of time.
What Are the Costs? The costs associated with buying on margin can be hefty. If the stock plummets, you could end up owing more than your initial investment. If it falls below 75% of its original value, the broker will issue what is referred to as a margin call since the investor must have at least 35-55% equity in his account at all times. A margin call means the investor much put more money into the account. If he can't do this, however, he'll have to sell the stock, pay the broker the amount owed, which might even be more once commissions are figured in. This can result in stresses and increased costs to the investor.
So What Are the Benefits? Despite the costs, there are many benefits to buying on margin as well. These include: Increase buying power. With a 50% margin, you can buy up to 50% more stock than you initially could with the cash account. If the stock goes up, you can make twice as much money twice as fast. Opens you up to new investment opportunities. With 50% more buying power, buying on margin affords opportunities you may not have had otherwise as a result of not having enough cash equity. Ability to invest more. For people who have a talent of picking stocks and make a good deal of money buying on margin, they can use the profits they get to invest in even more profitable stocks.
What Does Is Mean to Buy On Margin? Buying stocks on margin, to put it simply, is doubling your buying power buy borrowing up to 50% of a stock's price from your broker. In order to buy stocks on margin, there are a certain number of things to keep in mind. First of all, certain stocks can't be bought on margin. For example, any stock that is less than $5 a share (also called penny or micro-cap stocks) cannot be purchased on margin. In addition, IPOs (Initial Public Offerings, or companies that have recently gone public) also can't be purchased on margin until they've been on the market a certain amount of time.
What Are the Costs? The costs associated with buying on margin can be hefty. If the stock plummets, you could end up owing more than your initial investment. If it falls below 75% of its original value, the broker will issue what is referred to as a margin call since the investor must have at least 35-55% equity in his account at all times. A margin call means the investor much put more money into the account. If he can't do this, however, he'll have to sell the stock, pay the broker the amount owed, which might even be more once commissions are figured in. This can result in stresses and increased costs to the investor.
So What Are the Benefits? Despite the costs, there are many benefits to buying on margin as well. These include: Increase buying power. With a 50% margin, you can buy up to 50% more stock than you initially could with the cash account. If the stock goes up, you can make twice as much money twice as fast. Opens you up to new investment opportunities. With 50% more buying power, buying on margin affords opportunities you may not have had otherwise as a result of not having enough cash equity. Ability to invest more. For people who have a talent of picking stocks and make a good deal of money buying on margin, they can use the profits they get to invest in even more profitable stocks.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Will the Showdown in Latin America Cause Problems For Petrobras (PBR)
With Venezula, Comlombia, and Ecuador pounding the war drum I have to think that this can not spell good news for (PBR) Petroleo Brasileiro. With Venezuela providing 10% of US oil and Correa in Ecuador teaming up with Hugo Chavez you have to imagine that Bush will jump in if things get icky.
Again I can't imagine that this will spell good news for PBR.
With this region becoming geopolitically hot and Oil consumption probablly going down. I would revise my $100 price point to $80-90.
Short PBR and watch Latin America
Again I can't imagine that this will spell good news for PBR.
With this region becoming geopolitically hot and Oil consumption probablly going down. I would revise my $100 price point to $80-90.
Short PBR and watch Latin America
(PBR) Petrobras and (YHOO) the short facts
(PBR) Petrbras shorted at 118.80
(YHOO) Yahoo shorted at 29.65
(YHOO) Yahoo shorted at 29.65
Update on Short Positions
Sorry I haven't updated anyone on my short positions but I have shorted both PBR and YHOO. PBR was shorted when it was above $120 I know the stock was over inflated and now the news of a decrease in PBR's profits is sure to send this stock back down to the $100 range.
I also believe this YHOO deal is going to be a bust. The companies are like oil and water and even if it does get close to becoming a reality I am sure the EU will not allow Microsoft to gobble up Yahoo.
I also believe this YHOO deal is going to be a bust. The companies are like oil and water and even if it does get close to becoming a reality I am sure the EU will not allow Microsoft to gobble up Yahoo.
Excerpt From Chris Liddell - CFO of Microsoft - Why this merger won't happen
If your wondering why the merger between Microsoft and Yahoo won't happen all you have to do is look at this quote :
Can anyone say Corporate Culture Clash !!!
CHRIS LIDDELL: Well, no one asked me about Yahoo, which is interesting. But I'm sure everyone is vaguely interested in it. You know, their —
MARY MEEKER: What was that? What was that?
CHRIS LIDDELL: Yeah. The small company that we're looking to acquire.
Can anyone say Corporate Culture Clash !!!
Friday, February 22, 2008
Microsoft / Yahoo what next
As you readers know I was nervous yeterday about the news release from MSFT. The news release was garbage. I am nervous no more...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out
"Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out"
I was watching the democratic national convention and I heard the craziest thing, Hillary clinton proposed a trade time out. How would that work exactly. China, Brazil, Russia you can't trade with the US for 3 months until we get our act together.
This is the most ludicrous thing I have ever heard! Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out!
I was watching the democratic national convention and I heard the craziest thing, Hillary clinton proposed a trade time out. How would that work exactly. China, Brazil, Russia you can't trade with the US for 3 months until we get our act together.
This is the most ludicrous thing I have ever heard! Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out!
Staring Death In The Face
I am long on Micosoft and Short on Yahoo. Today Balmer will be making an announcement that could greatly affect my portfolio. I am staring death in the face.
Maybe they will announce they are web enabling Microsoft Windows suite...
Maybe they will announce they are web enabling Microsoft Windows suite...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Looks Like Bad News For Yahoo - Short it while you can
Yahoo!: MSFT could have trouble winning a proxy fight against YHOO's board - WSJ (29.01 )
WSJ reports one major Yahoo shareholder said he "would have a hard time" selling shares at $31. The investor believes the co is worth significantly more and suspects a proxy battle would be hard for MSFT to win with an offer below Yahoo's 52-week-high intraday price of $34.08. With the threat of a proxy battle, "what Microsoft is really trying to do is get Yahoo to the table" to negotiate a sale, this person said... The co hasn't attracted any rival bids. YHOO continues to hold discussions with NWS.A about folding MySpace.com and other Web properties into Yahoo in return for a roughly 20% stake, according to people familiar with the matter. While a deal still is unlikely, NWS.A remains serious about the talks, which are giving it an inside look at Yahoo's business. News Corp. President Peter Chernin has met with at least one Yahoo director recently, and News Corp. officials last night flew out to Yahoo's offices for discussions, according to people familiar with the matter. Yahoo also is discussing a possible partnership with T, according to people familiar with the matter. The co isn't in a rush to seal a deal with anyone, adds another person familiar with Yahoo's position, as it has begun fielding other inquiries from around the tech and media spheres.
WSJ reports one major Yahoo shareholder said he "would have a hard time" selling shares at $31. The investor believes the co is worth significantly more and suspects a proxy battle would be hard for MSFT to win with an offer below Yahoo's 52-week-high intraday price of $34.08. With the threat of a proxy battle, "what Microsoft is really trying to do is get Yahoo to the table" to negotiate a sale, this person said... The co hasn't attracted any rival bids. YHOO continues to hold discussions with NWS.A about folding MySpace.com and other Web properties into Yahoo in return for a roughly 20% stake, according to people familiar with the matter. While a deal still is unlikely, NWS.A remains serious about the talks, which are giving it an inside look at Yahoo's business. News Corp. President Peter Chernin has met with at least one Yahoo director recently, and News Corp. officials last night flew out to Yahoo's offices for discussions, according to people familiar with the matter. Yahoo also is discussing a possible partnership with T, according to people familiar with the matter. The co isn't in a rush to seal a deal with anyone, adds another person familiar with Yahoo's position, as it has begun fielding other inquiries from around the tech and media spheres.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Haliburton Steals From Perbras
Brazil Police Investigating Theft Of Important Petrobras Data
Last update: 2/14/2008 9:20:05 AM
RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's federal police are investigating the theft of "important information" from state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, a company press official said Thursday.
The company is already taking measures regarding the theft, but cannot give further details in order not to harm the investigation, the official said.
A hard drive and two notebooks were stolen from a container while it was being transported from a research platform to Petrobras' Campos Basin headquarters in Macae north or Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian Web site Terra said earlier Thursday. The objects were being transported by U.S. oilfield service company Halliburton Co. (HAL), the Web site said.
The hardware contained confidential information on research that led to recent discoveries of massive new oil and gas fields in ultra-deep waters off the Brazilian coast, Terra said, without giving sources.
Petrobras neither confirmed nor denied the details from the Web site.
Petrobras in November had said its Tupi discovery in ultra-deep waters in Brazil's Santos Basin could contain up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves. In January, the company said it made a massive natural gas discovery in a nearby area, which it called Jupiter.
-By Bernd Radowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; +55-11-8193-5722; bernd.radowitz@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2008 09:20 ET (14:20 GMT)
Last update: 2/14/2008 9:20:05 AM
RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's federal police are investigating the theft of "important information" from state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, a company press official said Thursday.
The company is already taking measures regarding the theft, but cannot give further details in order not to harm the investigation, the official said.
A hard drive and two notebooks were stolen from a container while it was being transported from a research platform to Petrobras' Campos Basin headquarters in Macae north or Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian Web site Terra said earlier Thursday. The objects were being transported by U.S. oilfield service company Halliburton Co. (HAL), the Web site said.
The hardware contained confidential information on research that led to recent discoveries of massive new oil and gas fields in ultra-deep waters off the Brazilian coast, Terra said, without giving sources.
Petrobras neither confirmed nor denied the details from the Web site.
Petrobras in November had said its Tupi discovery in ultra-deep waters in Brazil's Santos Basin could contain up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves. In January, the company said it made a massive natural gas discovery in a nearby area, which it called Jupiter.
-By Bernd Radowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; +55-11-8193-5722; bernd.radowitz@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2008 09:20 ET (14:20 GMT)
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Views On Yahoo Takeover
Interesting post on the yahoo boards please read:
Given that yhoo is in play, a lot can happen.
Regarding short-term, if the current offer of 31 stays for a while without being increased, i would expect yhoo to trade in a range from 27-31. it might even need to test 24/25 if the broader market shows more weakness.
I don't know your personal financial situation, if you use margin, what your time horizon is, how aggressive you are, what other positions you have, etc. but if you have your act together, i think buying yhoo on the dips is not a bad idea. i picked up a little more yesterday at 28.50.
I'm not playing options at all on yhoo. Just a large long position of shares. i've seen too many people lose $$ playing options on yhoo. inst. and HFs are using backspreads and a lot of hedging...which throws off the retail trader who tries to 'read' the option activity for sentiment. i don't recc. it.
As for the merger...that is the BIG question that nobody knows, not yang, not ballmer....yet. msft appears to want this very badly. i also know that yhoo mgmnt would prefer to stay independent, but shareholders may not be patient enough for the turnaround. from my knowledge of yhoo mgmnt and my gut instinct, my best guess is that yhoo will do whatever neccessary to stay independent. it might involve outsourcing search to google, it might involve some other alliance or partnership (maybe a three-way with aapl); and/or yhoo may spin off its investments into a separate entity and give yhoo shareholders shares in the co. and/or a onetime special dividend.
these are the things that are being explored right now.
I can tell you this, silicon valley co.s in general do not want to see yhoo end up with msft. there have been some intersting conversations among SV titans lately...although some of these people are enemies.....they all share a common arch enemy in msft.
whatever happens will happen with the approval of the largest holders. most of them are underwater and frustrated. at some point, they will push the yhoo BOD one way or the other. i'd like to think that the inst. will give jerry one year (6/07 - 6/08) to turn it around before forcing action.
if jerry resists msft's bid, no other bids come, and no goog or other deal materializes, it will go to a proxy fight at the next shareholder meeting in June. msft would be wise to avoid that though, co.s that merge after a proxy fight typically have great trouble intergrating (and lose a lot of key talent along the way).
Given that yhoo is in play, a lot can happen.
Regarding short-term, if the current offer of 31 stays for a while without being increased, i would expect yhoo to trade in a range from 27-31. it might even need to test 24/25 if the broader market shows more weakness.
I don't know your personal financial situation, if you use margin, what your time horizon is, how aggressive you are, what other positions you have, etc. but if you have your act together, i think buying yhoo on the dips is not a bad idea. i picked up a little more yesterday at 28.50.
I'm not playing options at all on yhoo. Just a large long position of shares. i've seen too many people lose $$ playing options on yhoo. inst. and HFs are using backspreads and a lot of hedging...which throws off the retail trader who tries to 'read' the option activity for sentiment. i don't recc. it.
As for the merger...that is the BIG question that nobody knows, not yang, not ballmer....yet. msft appears to want this very badly. i also know that yhoo mgmnt would prefer to stay independent, but shareholders may not be patient enough for the turnaround. from my knowledge of yhoo mgmnt and my gut instinct, my best guess is that yhoo will do whatever neccessary to stay independent. it might involve outsourcing search to google, it might involve some other alliance or partnership (maybe a three-way with aapl); and/or yhoo may spin off its investments into a separate entity and give yhoo shareholders shares in the co. and/or a onetime special dividend.
these are the things that are being explored right now.
I can tell you this, silicon valley co.s in general do not want to see yhoo end up with msft. there have been some intersting conversations among SV titans lately...although some of these people are enemies.....they all share a common arch enemy in msft.
whatever happens will happen with the approval of the largest holders. most of them are underwater and frustrated. at some point, they will push the yhoo BOD one way or the other. i'd like to think that the inst. will give jerry one year (6/07 - 6/08) to turn it around before forcing action.
if jerry resists msft's bid, no other bids come, and no goog or other deal materializes, it will go to a proxy fight at the next shareholder meeting in June. msft would be wise to avoid that though, co.s that merge after a proxy fight typically have great trouble intergrating (and lose a lot of key talent along the way).
Monday, February 11, 2008
Microsoft Vs. Yahoo
I bough into the stock at 28 got out at 29.90 and reversed my position. I am hoping this puppy tanks. I think Balmer is a little more savoy of a business man than Yang.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Google goes down for the second time
Google search was redirected to Photobucket around 5:22 PM EST. The website blogger was also down.
Here is a screen shot. I am sure that these outages will hit the street soon enough and when it does I would not want to be in Google.
Check out this screen shot for proof:
Here is a screen shot. I am sure that these outages will hit the street soon enough and when it does I would not want to be in Google.
Check out this screen shot for proof:
Monday, February 4, 2008
Stock Holders are getting edgy. This is a bet for the ages. May want to Short Google Also.
Read this post I found on the main investment board for Yahoo:
As a holder in YAHOO i am asking you now to send a message to the board.
#1 Tell Mr. Yang and the rest of the board to open the door now to all suitors!
#2 Tell them we want a higher price offer for our shares and other investments north of 40 dollars a share.
#3 Say no to selling off or sharing search engine and add with GOOGLE
[MY COMMENTS WILL FOLLOW}
#4 Send a message to Microsoft that we will under no means take scare tactics or bulling us into a 31 dollar offer. Send a counter offer now!
#5 Ask for a statement from Jack Ma CEO of ALLIBBA for imput on offer of 31 dollar tender off by Microsoft and state we feel that Yahoo's shares should be offered as of last years price of 48 dollars a shares but we would like his imput.
Comments: There was a piece released by someone on Bloomberg this morning stating that Yahoo investors rather give into Microsoft's bid then fight with Google.
Let me state something here now: If you or any other investor think that Googles help in anyway will help Yahoo survive you are quite mistaken.
As to Microsoft we should demand that Mr. Balmer, Mr. Gates that we expect talks to be held in a civil manner and that we will not be bullied or be the subects of scare tactics!
At this time Yahoo needs a merger with another to gain market share and our share to price value! We demand right now that the board invites all bidders to the table and that all offers will be looked at in a timely manner and knowing that GOOGLE if they offered a price that it would have swift anti trust problems. We all know this would not pass. You should also read between the lines that Google isnt a white knight here but is only out for themselves. With a Microsoft and Yahoo merger you are looking at a power house which ran right out of the gate, will and can be a world wide power house of the internet. The share offer of 31 dollars a share is just not acceptable. Give Microsoft a counter offer now and make it public and open to all other suitors that we are looking for a share price between 46 to 50 dollars a share.
ALL INVESTORS MUST STAND THEIR GROUND NOW AND VOICE THEIR OPINIONS AND INTENT TO YAHOO'S BOARD AND ALL SUITORS NOW! THIS MESSAGE BOARD IS A GOOD START. AS OF RIGHT NOW SPEAK UP AND SHARE YOUR THOUFHTS AND DEMANDS TO THE BOARD THAT THEY WORK FOR THE INVESTORS AND OWNERS OF THE BOARD AND NOT THEMSELVES. WHERE DID BLOOMBERG GET THIS INFORMATION FROM THAT YAHOO INVESTORS WOULD RATHER TAKE A 31 DOLLAR OFFER THEN FIGHT WITH GOOGLE? THE MEDIA AND CERTAIN ANALYST ARE STATING THAT YAHOO IS FINISHED AND GONE! ALSO THAT MICROSOFT IS DONE AND GONE WITHOUT THIS DEAL. YES IT WOULD MAKE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND MOST LIKELY MAKE THE BIGGEST INTERNET POWER HOUSE OF SEARCH AND ADD COMPANY IN THE WORLD AND BE WELCOME COMPETITION BUT THESE 2 COMPANIES ARE NOT TOAST IF IT DONT. TELL THE BOARD THAT WE DEMAND THAT THEY LOOK AT ALL OPTIONS AND SUITORS THAT WILL INCREASE YAHOO'S MAXIUM VALUE NOW NOT LATER AND ALSO ASK FOR MR. JACK MA'S IMPUT FROM ALLIBBA WHICH YAHOO OWNS 40% OF THAT COMPANY AND IS A VERY BIG ASSET FOR YAHOO IN THE FUTURE. ALSO ASK FOR IMPUT STATEMENTS FROM YAHOO JAPAN AND OTHER PARTNERSHIPS OF MAJOR VALUE FOR THEIRS. WE MUST SPEAK UP AND MAKE SURE THIS BOARD LISTENS TO US NOW SO WE RECEIVE MAXIUM VALUE. DONT LET ANYONE FOOL YOU! OR SCARE YOU INTO SELLING AT THIS MOMENT.JUST BY THE TACTICS ALONE WE KNOW YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE IS WORTH MUCH HIGHER.
WE SHOULD ALSO ASK THE SEC TO WATCH YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE FOR MANIPULATION AS THESE TALKS GO FORWARD.
IT IS THE DUTY OF THE BOARD TO FIGHT FOR MAXIUM VALUE AND TO LOOK OUT FOR SHAREHOLDER AND INVESTORS INTEREST NOT THEIR OWN EGO DEMANDS. BEGIN NOW BY SPEAKING UP TO THIS MESSAGE AND DEMAND TO THE BOARD THAT THEY OPEN FORMAL TALKS WITH ALL SUITORS AS OF RIGHT NOW! TELL MICROSOFT THAT THE BID PRICE IS MUCH TOO LOW AND HAVE YAHOO AT THIS TIME OFFER A COUNTER OFFER IN THE HIGH 40'S. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
As a holder in YAHOO i am asking you now to send a message to the board.
#1 Tell Mr. Yang and the rest of the board to open the door now to all suitors!
#2 Tell them we want a higher price offer for our shares and other investments north of 40 dollars a share.
#3 Say no to selling off or sharing search engine and add with GOOGLE
[MY COMMENTS WILL FOLLOW}
#4 Send a message to Microsoft that we will under no means take scare tactics or bulling us into a 31 dollar offer. Send a counter offer now!
#5 Ask for a statement from Jack Ma CEO of ALLIBBA for imput on offer of 31 dollar tender off by Microsoft and state we feel that Yahoo's shares should be offered as of last years price of 48 dollars a shares but we would like his imput.
Comments: There was a piece released by someone on Bloomberg this morning stating that Yahoo investors rather give into Microsoft's bid then fight with Google.
Let me state something here now: If you or any other investor think that Googles help in anyway will help Yahoo survive you are quite mistaken.
As to Microsoft we should demand that Mr. Balmer, Mr. Gates that we expect talks to be held in a civil manner and that we will not be bullied or be the subects of scare tactics!
At this time Yahoo needs a merger with another to gain market share and our share to price value! We demand right now that the board invites all bidders to the table and that all offers will be looked at in a timely manner and knowing that GOOGLE if they offered a price that it would have swift anti trust problems. We all know this would not pass. You should also read between the lines that Google isnt a white knight here but is only out for themselves. With a Microsoft and Yahoo merger you are looking at a power house which ran right out of the gate, will and can be a world wide power house of the internet. The share offer of 31 dollars a share is just not acceptable. Give Microsoft a counter offer now and make it public and open to all other suitors that we are looking for a share price between 46 to 50 dollars a share.
ALL INVESTORS MUST STAND THEIR GROUND NOW AND VOICE THEIR OPINIONS AND INTENT TO YAHOO'S BOARD AND ALL SUITORS NOW! THIS MESSAGE BOARD IS A GOOD START. AS OF RIGHT NOW SPEAK UP AND SHARE YOUR THOUFHTS AND DEMANDS TO THE BOARD THAT THEY WORK FOR THE INVESTORS AND OWNERS OF THE BOARD AND NOT THEMSELVES. WHERE DID BLOOMBERG GET THIS INFORMATION FROM THAT YAHOO INVESTORS WOULD RATHER TAKE A 31 DOLLAR OFFER THEN FIGHT WITH GOOGLE? THE MEDIA AND CERTAIN ANALYST ARE STATING THAT YAHOO IS FINISHED AND GONE! ALSO THAT MICROSOFT IS DONE AND GONE WITHOUT THIS DEAL. YES IT WOULD MAKE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND MOST LIKELY MAKE THE BIGGEST INTERNET POWER HOUSE OF SEARCH AND ADD COMPANY IN THE WORLD AND BE WELCOME COMPETITION BUT THESE 2 COMPANIES ARE NOT TOAST IF IT DONT. TELL THE BOARD THAT WE DEMAND THAT THEY LOOK AT ALL OPTIONS AND SUITORS THAT WILL INCREASE YAHOO'S MAXIUM VALUE NOW NOT LATER AND ALSO ASK FOR MR. JACK MA'S IMPUT FROM ALLIBBA WHICH YAHOO OWNS 40% OF THAT COMPANY AND IS A VERY BIG ASSET FOR YAHOO IN THE FUTURE. ALSO ASK FOR IMPUT STATEMENTS FROM YAHOO JAPAN AND OTHER PARTNERSHIPS OF MAJOR VALUE FOR THEIRS. WE MUST SPEAK UP AND MAKE SURE THIS BOARD LISTENS TO US NOW SO WE RECEIVE MAXIUM VALUE. DONT LET ANYONE FOOL YOU! OR SCARE YOU INTO SELLING AT THIS MOMENT.JUST BY THE TACTICS ALONE WE KNOW YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE IS WORTH MUCH HIGHER.
WE SHOULD ALSO ASK THE SEC TO WATCH YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE FOR MANIPULATION AS THESE TALKS GO FORWARD.
IT IS THE DUTY OF THE BOARD TO FIGHT FOR MAXIUM VALUE AND TO LOOK OUT FOR SHAREHOLDER AND INVESTORS INTEREST NOT THEIR OWN EGO DEMANDS. BEGIN NOW BY SPEAKING UP TO THIS MESSAGE AND DEMAND TO THE BOARD THAT THEY OPEN FORMAL TALKS WITH ALL SUITORS AS OF RIGHT NOW! TELL MICROSOFT THAT THE BID PRICE IS MUCH TOO LOW AND HAVE YAHOO AT THIS TIME OFFER A COUNTER OFFER IN THE HIGH 40'S. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
Google Offers to Help Yahoo
This could mean some serious news to the Yahoo shares holders. The odds of this stock going down today and in the future have just increased. There is still a likely hood that Google could try and outbid Microsoft and in that case the stock price will rise but I would have to say this is definitely an interesting wrench.
Rad more here http://online.wsj.com/
Rad more here http://online.wsj.com/
Saturday, February 2, 2008
It looks like we have THE BEST CASE SCENARIO for a short play on Yahoo
I just read the best news I could have seen in this weekend - just broke an hour ago:
Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said it may take "quite a bit of time" to weigh its strategic options, including keeping the company independent, following Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) $45 billion (23 billion pounds) offer to buy the company.
In a weekend posting on the company's Web site, Yahoo said it was undertaking a deliberate review of Microsoft's unsolicited offer to pay Yahoo shareholders either $31 in cash, or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock.
The review "will include evaluating all of the Company's strategic alternatives including maintaining Yahoo! as an independent company," the posting said. "A review process like this is fluid, and it can take quite a bit of time."
In response to a frequently asked question about whether Yahoo would seek proposals from other companies, also posted on its Web site, the company said it was going to evaluate all options.
Analysts cited Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Viacom Inc (VIAb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among possible bidders, although they also said few companies had the balance sheet to compete with Microsoft or were as natural a fit for Yahoo.
Microsoft + Yahoo = Oracle + BEA System
I am betting on the fact the hostile takeovers work like most negotions. One person offers, the other person says no way, and then they come to some consensus.
I am also betting that this will take some time. I am reviewing what happened with Oracle's hostile takeover of BEA systems and I am seeing a interesting pattern. That after the euphoria of the initial offer, the stock tanked and then went to the negotiated price.
Look at this chart I got online - the tab KL is where the unsolicited offer was made. Notice the price after months of negations , then they approve the merger at point A.
I am also betting that this will take some time. I am reviewing what happened with Oracle's hostile takeover of BEA systems and I am seeing a interesting pattern. That after the euphoria of the initial offer, the stock tanked and then went to the negotiated price.
Look at this chart I got online - the tab KL is where the unsolicited offer was made. Notice the price after months of negations , then they approve the merger at point A.
Friday, February 1, 2008
More thoughts On MicroHoo - The Microsoft Yahoo Merger
The two together will make them #2. Companies only care about marketing to the lion-share which is Google and if they had to make a choice in a bad economy they would choose Google.
Watch this deal closely - several months from now - you will see this was not a good idea. Microsoft doesn't need to pay 44 billion for the #2 spot when they get there by web enabling Microsoft office and outlook.
This will be look at as a bad move by Microsoft. I know they can afford some miscues but Yahoo users will abandon this MicroHoo combination because both companies are not interested in securing web users anonymity.
They feel as if Microsoft is big brother. Yahoo had bad press recently with keeping users identities from the Chinese government. I think it caused someone to loose there life.
Google gives their users the ability to turn off web search history and have been very vocal about keeping web surfing patterns private.
Trust me if this deal happens MicroHoo will find out that a lot of users will migrate to Google.
Watch this deal closely - several months from now - you will see this was not a good idea. Microsoft doesn't need to pay 44 billion for the #2 spot when they get there by web enabling Microsoft office and outlook.
This will be look at as a bad move by Microsoft. I know they can afford some miscues but Yahoo users will abandon this MicroHoo combination because both companies are not interested in securing web users anonymity.
They feel as if Microsoft is big brother. Yahoo had bad press recently with keeping users identities from the Chinese government. I think it caused someone to loose there life.
Google gives their users the ability to turn off web search history and have been very vocal about keeping web surfing patterns private.
Trust me if this deal happens MicroHoo will find out that a lot of users will migrate to Google.
What is to become of us should Microsoft succeed in buying out Yahoo?
I found this on the Yahoo Answers board. It's always interesting to see what the actual users of Yahoo think. I found 5 negative comments and no positive comments. Not a good sign. Read the questions and answers below or view them online at http://answers.yahoo.com/
-----------------
What is to become of us should Microsoft succeed in buying out Yahoo?
Answers (5)
1st Time Mummy 2 be
It would mena a million new rules and regulations and then they would close it down anyway
me
Probably will be for the worst.
vybes_so...
Yahoo would be moved to www.MSN.crap
zedkay
we might end up with hotyahoo.com
claire
It'll probably mean that mircosoft get rid of this place and the yahoo home page get's changed to the mircosoft page and yahoo looses everything unique to them and they might scrap Yahoo! Mail which i really hope wont happen
-----------------
What is to become of us should Microsoft succeed in buying out Yahoo?
Answers (5)
1st Time Mummy 2 be
It would mena a million new rules and regulations and then they would close it down anyway
me
Probably will be for the worst.
vybes_so...
Yahoo would be moved to www.MSN.crap
zedkay
we might end up with hotyahoo.com
claire
It'll probably mean that mircosoft get rid of this place and the yahoo home page get's changed to the mircosoft page and yahoo looses everything unique to them and they might scrap Yahoo! Mail which i really hope wont happen
Making A Move - Buying EBAY & Betting Yahoo Won't Accept Deal
Okay took some 1 and 3% loses and liquidated some funds to make a move. It makes sense that Google may try to buy EBAY to counter Microsoft's move. It also makes sense that Yahoo might not accept this deal since there stock Microsoft would be getting this company at a steal and this jump in price is also kind of unjustified since the purchase wont go through until the middle of the year.
Microsoft/Yahoo what it means for Google
Today's big news is that Yahoo is being taken over by Microsoft. Since both of these stocks would not be good trades lets look at Google and what this means for the search giant.
It means that the stock price will go down in the next week or two. Maybe by as much as 100 points. So you have a good shorting opportunity on this stock if your can get in today around $560.
In the short term people will think that Microsoft/Yahoo merger is a good thing. It is not. Let me be clear Microsoft's search is horrible and its community tools are very lacking (I have used them on many occasions and can speak as an expert on this topic). The people who are loyal to Yahoo will hate changing over to MSN mail or any of the MSN tools. There will be chaos. Eventually earnings will get released and this merger will still be hanging on the books.
Now lets look at Google. Their tools are incredibly robust and easy to use. They are becoming the champions of securing your search patterns and giving the user control of if a history is kept on them or not. Google is making it easier and easier to implement ads on your personal site or blog to generate revenue. They are way ahead of the curve and this will be brought to the forefront by some analyst who thinks they are awesome for figuring his out.
Listen folks lots of people have Yahoo mail and Microsoft Office is a great app that I hope they take online one day but both of these companies do not equal Google. Take it from n objective technies point of view. Sell Google short in the near term and pick up once this news dies down about how wonderful MicroHoo is going to be.
It means that the stock price will go down in the next week or two. Maybe by as much as 100 points. So you have a good shorting opportunity on this stock if your can get in today around $560.
In the short term people will think that Microsoft/Yahoo merger is a good thing. It is not. Let me be clear Microsoft's search is horrible and its community tools are very lacking (I have used them on many occasions and can speak as an expert on this topic). The people who are loyal to Yahoo will hate changing over to MSN mail or any of the MSN tools. There will be chaos. Eventually earnings will get released and this merger will still be hanging on the books.
Now lets look at Google. Their tools are incredibly robust and easy to use. They are becoming the champions of securing your search patterns and giving the user control of if a history is kept on them or not. Google is making it easier and easier to implement ads on your personal site or blog to generate revenue. They are way ahead of the curve and this will be brought to the forefront by some analyst who thinks they are awesome for figuring his out.
Listen folks lots of people have Yahoo mail and Microsoft Office is a great app that I hope they take online one day but both of these companies do not equal Google. Take it from n objective technies point of view. Sell Google short in the near term and pick up once this news dies down about how wonderful MicroHoo is going to be.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Timothy Sykes Gives Up Daytrading!
As I have had some seen some unimaginable loses in the stock market in recent months, I have suspended any daytrading activity and am looking for dividend based stocks and ETF's. My goal is move most of my remaining funds to slower growth companies. I also like gold, oil stocks, and commodities. I will be posting my Tireless Research on this blog as usual.
Oddly enough I was amazed to see one of my heros also step out of the market for a while - Timothy Sykes.
Please read the article on below on Timothy Sykes and visit his blog at timothysykes.com:
Oddly enough I was amazed to see one of my heros also step out of the market for a while - Timothy Sykes.
Please read the article on below on Timothy Sykes and visit his blog at timothysykes.com:
My last scalp/day trade that is...
Actually made it through pre-market on SOLF to sell my 200 shares at $17.80 five minutes after the open. I wanted to give it a chance to run, but the down market, lack of getting to the key $18 price level and big blocks of sells made me cut this trade short. Even though I only made $10, LOL, the trade is a good one because I let the price action decide my bias and I’ve never gone wrong when I let that happen because after all, you can analyze a company to death, but all that matters for your investment is the price action of its stock—why this simple fact escapes so many people, I’ll never understand.
So, yeah, this was a busted trade, but since I cut my losses quickly (not that I mean I lost $ on it, but meaning this trade was a losing proposition since it didn’t act the way I wanted, aka breaking $18 and squeezing shorts), the risk-reward on the trade was solid and that’s all that matters. After all, if you make 100 solid risk-reward trades, you’ll probly be up, it just takes time as if you’re a casino taking small profits over time.
Several other potential trades today but I took none. The Reason: I rewatched my DVD.
Sure, I could continue researching hardcore and scalping a few times/day all year long, making a few grand, possibly getting to $25k, possibly not, but it would take so much time and effort that it would come at the expense of my life, my publishing company and my ability to help teach others how to play this magnificent game that is PennyStocking.
No. Scalping and day trading is great—if you have the capital reserves and the ability to day trade freely. At TIM’s current asset level, I have neither and won’t for many months or years. And TIM really isn’t meant to teach scalping, while it’s decent money, it’s hard work filled with many disappointments along the way.
I could’ve scalped NYNY today for 20 cents—if I was perfect (and when does that happen)—when it broke yesterday’s high of $1.15. I could’ve scalped COINW for 30 cents when COIN broke resistance today at $9.50 (No COIN available to short directly). Both trades would’ve taken only a few hours, but the watching and waiting for the technical cracks takes ALL DAY. Not for me. Not right now.
Instead I will focus on finding and trading stocks following the patterns that are more reliable, meaning I’ll be able to hold them longer, but since they are “perfect”, that also means they are quite rare—think 1-3/month. These are the plays newbies should be in. These are the plays that I detail in my DVD as these are the plays that created my wealth and are particularly extraordinary because you don’t have to day trade them and you can trade in your spare time, the economy doesn’t matter, earnings valuations don’t matter—it’s simply a waiting game as to when the next Supernova presents itself (then you have to know how to play it based on each opportunity’s variables)
The problem I encounter is wanting to make TIM grow every day, to teach lessons every day, to sell more books and DVDs every day, to quiet the haters sooner rather than later, all the crap that works against successful trading. I don’t know how many more times I’ll have to watch this damn 6-hour DVD course, but it really helps me understand TIM’s mission better. As difficult as it’s going to be to not watch the market every second, I really need to focus on my patience because this few hundred/day (if I’m lucky since I have to be perfect in my scalping), researching like crazy to find potential plays, getting no sleep, writing whenever I get the chance, being a week late answering emails, working on my new site whenever I get a chance, having no life, even at Sundance, trying to become Cramer 2.0 is all crap.
Now I'm just another working stiff, who, while still better than most commentators, is really just writing every day to get more exposure and teach people the hard game that the stock market is.
Screw that!
What's made this game so amazing to me is that when I stick to these amazing patterns , I don't have to work hard, my results are extraordinary and I can rub it in the face of those who have been taught a whole bunch of BullShip! Since I started TIM in November 2007, really only AKNS, COIN and SEED (all of which I covered extensively in posts like this ) have fit the pattern, all the dozens of other trades I've done and articles I've written have been complete crap!
Thank you DVD for helping me realize this. People who’ve already watched it, am I right or am I right? Or am I right? Or am I right?
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Good Article on Why Google is a Good Buy in the $500's
GOOGLE MIGHT JUST HAVE THE RIGHT MIX TO DOMINATE THE WEB FOR A WHILE
People have, over the millennia, become more skeptical about human institutions and/or inventions, even when they are supposed to be in place to help us. Cases in point: Political Systems, Legal Systems, Law Enforcement, etc. We are rightly skeptical because as imperfect beings, we seem to always have a built-in bias, or some form of inefficiency waiting to creep into anything we are building.
Now supposed, an invention like the World Wide Web, which to a certain degree, is more independent and efficient than our traditional human institutions, is threatened in one way or another, we are always easily up in arms. Case in point, the current debate on net neutrality, something one will traditionally expect only Techies to be up in arms about, but that is not the case. The outcries some of us have noticed seem to cut across various professional and educational classes. One can’t help but as, what gives? The answer is simple: People are tired of big businesses deciding what they, as consumers, should be spoon fed. The unparalleled explosion of social networking, video and picture sharing sites is a very good example of how consumers want to set the agenda for their web experience and uses.
What does any of this have to do with Google having the right mix to dominate the web? It turns out to be a lot. Before Google’s stocks hovered above $150 (what seems centuries ago today), I use to read articles in the press that were reminisce of the early days in the mid 1990s when Microsoft and its then fledgling Internet Explorer browser and MSN.com first appeared on the scene. Most of the articles were always how Microsoft didn’t have a clue about the web, because they depend too much on their technology, their PhD people, you have to be a genius to work for them, and how these companies have no human touch to their web offerings. Well, MSN.com started having the famous human touch, and as it grew worldwide, some of its patrons started dropping off – some of us cut down on patronizing the portal for a while there because it became too human, but with very little improvement in content quality. Internet Explorer went on to win the browser wars, and held on to its dominance even through wikia business and web design anti-trust trials.
Well, how about Google? Google’s hiring practices, its dependency on statistical data, etc. have all met with ridicule in the press. Consumers however, like using Google because its most important asset, the search technology, has no human factors to worry about. Secondly, Google allows its users to keep scores themselves too through the PageRank system. Granted, some people have misgivings about how the PageRank system handles some sites. Nevertheless, consumers tend not to be too concerned, so far as the human factor doesn’t become the dominant way PageRanks and Google searches are conducted. How many people out there even know that Google has a Directory, courtesy of the Open Directory Project? very few. I don’t think a majority of Google users care that much for it, since it has the human factor, which tends to favor inefficiency, knowingly or not. Don’t get me wrong. Directories and Portals are important on the web, and will continue to be for a very long time. However, Google didn’t make its name as a directory.
However, a site that started out as a directory on the web, and then tries to get into the pure search game, don’t expect web users to judge its new foray on the same fair standard as say Google. It doesn’t matter whether you can prove to have a better search technology or not. The biased judgment thing is just part of being human, and we all do it. Recently, I visited a major directory/portal that seem to have a quite good search technology. Nevertheless, I have always felt eerie in using the directory/portal site’s search technology as much as I use Google’s. My leery feelings about this directory/portal turned search powerhouse took a realistic turn recently. One of my sites that had a top position on this directory/portal, was recently demoted to a secondary position. The reason for the demotion seemed innocent enough – the other sites that were listed higher than mine, were supposed up there due to “site listings by popularity”. I recently visited the directory to see what those popular sites have that mine didn’t have, so as to try and improve on my site. Well, I started noticing that some of these sites not only had lower PageRanks than mine, and the sites’ content wasn’t worthy of their positions on the directory/portal. Let me state this before I go any further: why did I use Google’s PageRank to make my judgment? Because Google’s monthly searches represent at least 51% of all online searches, and its nearest second is only about half that in search traffic. That means, Google will generally give a better estimation of a site’s popularity on the web than any of its rivals. Now, back to our story. I started thinking about the implications of what I just discovered. Namely, how many consumers out there might have abandoned using the Directory/Portal turned search giant because of their suspicions that the human factor, normally induced by financial reasons, might even be in their so-called search Technology?
Web consumers are a very demanding and fickle bunch, and anyone whose site might have been off a couple of days (like mine), will tell how hard it is to get lost customers back. Web consumers are like this for very good reasons – they call the shots and they know it too! They expect good content, and unbiased choices from the websites they visit. One cannot over emphasis the damage one can do to their site(s) if they don’t play by these rules. Remember the 1990s when some folks designed their site(s) in a way that trapped visitors, or ISPs that supposedly shielded their clients from the dangers of the web, by giving them only One out of every Thousand choices for web searches? Where are these companies now? Most imploded on themselves, or if they hung on to survive the Dot Com meltdown, major changes had to be made.
For now, some of us expect Google’s dominance on the web to last for a while, because they don’t seem to be making the same mistakes. When it comes to betting on the so-called human touch-intensive websites and Technology-Intensive websites, my bet is always on the Technology nerds.
People have, over the millennia, become more skeptical about human institutions and/or inventions, even when they are supposed to be in place to help us. Cases in point: Political Systems, Legal Systems, Law Enforcement, etc. We are rightly skeptical because as imperfect beings, we seem to always have a built-in bias, or some form of inefficiency waiting to creep into anything we are building.
Now supposed, an invention like the World Wide Web, which to a certain degree, is more independent and efficient than our traditional human institutions, is threatened in one way or another, we are always easily up in arms. Case in point, the current debate on net neutrality, something one will traditionally expect only Techies to be up in arms about, but that is not the case. The outcries some of us have noticed seem to cut across various professional and educational classes. One can’t help but as, what gives? The answer is simple: People are tired of big businesses deciding what they, as consumers, should be spoon fed. The unparalleled explosion of social networking, video and picture sharing sites is a very good example of how consumers want to set the agenda for their web experience and uses.
What does any of this have to do with Google having the right mix to dominate the web? It turns out to be a lot. Before Google’s stocks hovered above $150 (what seems centuries ago today), I use to read articles in the press that were reminisce of the early days in the mid 1990s when Microsoft and its then fledgling Internet Explorer browser and MSN.com first appeared on the scene. Most of the articles were always how Microsoft didn’t have a clue about the web, because they depend too much on their technology, their PhD people, you have to be a genius to work for them, and how these companies have no human touch to their web offerings. Well, MSN.com started having the famous human touch, and as it grew worldwide, some of its patrons started dropping off – some of us cut down on patronizing the portal for a while there because it became too human, but with very little improvement in content quality. Internet Explorer went on to win the browser wars, and held on to its dominance even through wikia business and web design anti-trust trials.
Well, how about Google? Google’s hiring practices, its dependency on statistical data, etc. have all met with ridicule in the press. Consumers however, like using Google because its most important asset, the search technology, has no human factors to worry about. Secondly, Google allows its users to keep scores themselves too through the PageRank system. Granted, some people have misgivings about how the PageRank system handles some sites. Nevertheless, consumers tend not to be too concerned, so far as the human factor doesn’t become the dominant way PageRanks and Google searches are conducted. How many people out there even know that Google has a Directory, courtesy of the Open Directory Project? very few. I don’t think a majority of Google users care that much for it, since it has the human factor, which tends to favor inefficiency, knowingly or not. Don’t get me wrong. Directories and Portals are important on the web, and will continue to be for a very long time. However, Google didn’t make its name as a directory.
However, a site that started out as a directory on the web, and then tries to get into the pure search game, don’t expect web users to judge its new foray on the same fair standard as say Google. It doesn’t matter whether you can prove to have a better search technology or not. The biased judgment thing is just part of being human, and we all do it. Recently, I visited a major directory/portal that seem to have a quite good search technology. Nevertheless, I have always felt eerie in using the directory/portal site’s search technology as much as I use Google’s. My leery feelings about this directory/portal turned search powerhouse took a realistic turn recently. One of my sites that had a top position on this directory/portal, was recently demoted to a secondary position. The reason for the demotion seemed innocent enough – the other sites that were listed higher than mine, were supposed up there due to “site listings by popularity”. I recently visited the directory to see what those popular sites have that mine didn’t have, so as to try and improve on my site. Well, I started noticing that some of these sites not only had lower PageRanks than mine, and the sites’ content wasn’t worthy of their positions on the directory/portal. Let me state this before I go any further: why did I use Google’s PageRank to make my judgment? Because Google’s monthly searches represent at least 51% of all online searches, and its nearest second is only about half that in search traffic. That means, Google will generally give a better estimation of a site’s popularity on the web than any of its rivals. Now, back to our story. I started thinking about the implications of what I just discovered. Namely, how many consumers out there might have abandoned using the Directory/Portal turned search giant because of their suspicions that the human factor, normally induced by financial reasons, might even be in their so-called search Technology?
Web consumers are a very demanding and fickle bunch, and anyone whose site might have been off a couple of days (like mine), will tell how hard it is to get lost customers back. Web consumers are like this for very good reasons – they call the shots and they know it too! They expect good content, and unbiased choices from the websites they visit. One cannot over emphasis the damage one can do to their site(s) if they don’t play by these rules. Remember the 1990s when some folks designed their site(s) in a way that trapped visitors, or ISPs that supposedly shielded their clients from the dangers of the web, by giving them only One out of every Thousand choices for web searches? Where are these companies now? Most imploded on themselves, or if they hung on to survive the Dot Com meltdown, major changes had to be made.
For now, some of us expect Google’s dominance on the web to last for a while, because they don’t seem to be making the same mistakes. When it comes to betting on the so-called human touch-intensive websites and Technology-Intensive websites, my bet is always on the Technology nerds.
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