Sonic Money is a sounding board for my personal investments strategies and stock research. It will be updated in real time. As I make moves in these financial waters you will be able to either join in or watch from the sidelines. Either way my goal is to make money every day through picking long term stock winners, shorting stocks that shouldn't be posting gains, betting on sectors that are experiencing tremendous growth, and posting profits that make people take notice.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Microsoft / Yahoo what next

As you readers know I was nervous yeterday about the news release from MSFT. The news release was garbage. I am nervous no more...

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out

"Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out"

I was watching the democratic national convention and I heard the craziest thing, Hillary clinton proposed a trade time out. How would that work exactly. China, Brazil, Russia you can't trade with the US for 3 months until we get our act together.

This is the most ludicrous thing I have ever heard! Hillary Clinton Proposes A Trade Time Out!

Staring Death In The Face

I am long on Micosoft and Short on Yahoo. Today Balmer will be making an announcement that could greatly affect my portfolio. I am staring death in the face.

Maybe they will announce they are web enabling Microsoft Windows suite...

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Looks Like Bad News For Yahoo - Short it while you can

Yahoo!: MSFT could have trouble winning a proxy fight against YHOO's board - WSJ (29.01 )

WSJ reports one major Yahoo shareholder said he "would have a hard time" selling shares at $31. The investor believes the co is worth significantly more and suspects a proxy battle would be hard for MSFT to win with an offer below Yahoo's 52-week-high intraday price of $34.08. With the threat of a proxy battle, "what Microsoft is really trying to do is get Yahoo to the table" to negotiate a sale, this person said... The co hasn't attracted any rival bids. YHOO continues to hold discussions with NWS.A about folding MySpace.com and other Web properties into Yahoo in return for a roughly 20% stake, according to people familiar with the matter. While a deal still is unlikely, NWS.A remains serious about the talks, which are giving it an inside look at Yahoo's business. News Corp. President Peter Chernin has met with at least one Yahoo director recently, and News Corp. officials last night flew out to Yahoo's offices for discussions, according to people familiar with the matter. Yahoo also is discussing a possible partnership with T, according to people familiar with the matter. The co isn't in a rush to seal a deal with anyone, adds another person familiar with Yahoo's position, as it has begun fielding other inquiries from around the tech and media spheres.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Haliburton Steals From Perbras

Brazil Police Investigating Theft Of Important Petrobras Data
Last update: 2/14/2008 9:20:05 AM

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's federal police are investigating the theft of "important information" from state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, a company press official said Thursday.

The company is already taking measures regarding the theft, but cannot give further details in order not to harm the investigation, the official said.

A hard drive and two notebooks were stolen from a container while it was being transported from a research platform to Petrobras' Campos Basin headquarters in Macae north or Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian Web site Terra said earlier Thursday. The objects were being transported by U.S. oilfield service company Halliburton Co. (HAL), the Web site said.

The hardware contained confidential information on research that led to recent discoveries of massive new oil and gas fields in ultra-deep waters off the Brazilian coast, Terra said, without giving sources.
Petrobras neither confirmed nor denied the details from the Web site.
Petrobras in November had said its Tupi discovery in ultra-deep waters in Brazil's Santos Basin could contain up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves. In January, the company said it made a massive natural gas discovery in a nearby area, which it called Jupiter.
-By Bernd Radowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; +55-11-8193-5722; bernd.radowitz@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2008 09:20 ET (14:20 GMT)

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Views On Yahoo Takeover

Interesting post on the yahoo boards please read:

Given that yhoo is in play, a lot can happen.

Regarding short-term, if the current offer of 31 stays for a while without being increased, i would expect yhoo to trade in a range from 27-31. it might even need to test 24/25 if the broader market shows more weakness.

I don't know your personal financial situation, if you use margin, what your time horizon is, how aggressive you are, what other positions you have, etc. but if you have your act together, i think buying yhoo on the dips is not a bad idea. i picked up a little more yesterday at 28.50.

I'm not playing options at all on yhoo. Just a large long position of shares. i've seen too many people lose $$ playing options on yhoo. inst. and HFs are using backspreads and a lot of hedging...which throws off the retail trader who tries to 'read' the option activity for sentiment. i don't recc. it.

As for the merger...that is the BIG question that nobody knows, not yang, not ballmer....yet. msft appears to want this very badly. i also know that yhoo mgmnt would prefer to stay independent, but shareholders may not be patient enough for the turnaround. from my knowledge of yhoo mgmnt and my gut instinct, my best guess is that yhoo will do whatever neccessary to stay independent. it might involve outsourcing search to google, it might involve some other alliance or partnership (maybe a three-way with aapl); and/or yhoo may spin off its investments into a separate entity and give yhoo shareholders shares in the co. and/or a onetime special dividend.

these are the things that are being explored right now.

I can tell you this, silicon valley co.s in general do not want to see yhoo end up with msft. there have been some intersting conversations among SV titans lately...although some of these people are enemies.....they all share a common arch enemy in msft.

whatever happens will happen with the approval of the largest holders. most of them are underwater and frustrated. at some point, they will push the yhoo BOD one way or the other. i'd like to think that the inst. will give jerry one year (6/07 - 6/08) to turn it around before forcing action.

if jerry resists msft's bid, no other bids come, and no goog or other deal materializes, it will go to a proxy fight at the next shareholder meeting in June. msft would be wise to avoid that though, co.s that merge after a proxy fight typically have great trouble intergrating (and lose a lot of key talent along the way).

Monday, February 11, 2008

Microsoft Vs. Yahoo

I bough into the stock at 28 got out at 29.90 and reversed my position. I am hoping this puppy tanks. I think Balmer is a little more savoy of a business man than Yang.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Google goes down for the second time

Google search was redirected to Photobucket around 5:22 PM EST. The website blogger was also down.

Here is a screen shot. I am sure that these outages will hit the street soon enough and when it does I would not want to be in Google.

Check out this screen shot for proof:

Monday, February 4, 2008

Stock Holders are getting edgy. This is a bet for the ages. May want to Short Google Also.

Read this post I found on the main investment board for Yahoo:

As a holder in YAHOO i am asking you now to send a message to the board.
#1 Tell Mr. Yang and the rest of the board to open the door now to all suitors!
#2 Tell them we want a higher price offer for our shares and other investments north of 40 dollars a share.
#3 Say no to selling off or sharing search engine and add with GOOGLE
[MY COMMENTS WILL FOLLOW}
#4 Send a message to Microsoft that we will under no means take scare tactics or bulling us into a 31 dollar offer. Send a counter offer now!
#5 Ask for a statement from Jack Ma CEO of ALLIBBA for imput on offer of 31 dollar tender off by Microsoft and state we feel that Yahoo's shares should be offered as of last years price of 48 dollars a shares but we would like his imput.
Comments: There was a piece released by someone on Bloomberg this morning stating that Yahoo investors rather give into Microsoft's bid then fight with Google.
Let me state something here now: If you or any other investor think that Googles help in anyway will help Yahoo survive you are quite mistaken.
As to Microsoft we should demand that Mr. Balmer, Mr. Gates that we expect talks to be held in a civil manner and that we will not be bullied or be the subects of scare tactics!
At this time Yahoo needs a merger with another to gain market share and our share to price value! We demand right now that the board invites all bidders to the table and that all offers will be looked at in a timely manner and knowing that GOOGLE if they offered a price that it would have swift anti trust problems. We all know this would not pass. You should also read between the lines that Google isnt a white knight here but is only out for themselves. With a Microsoft and Yahoo merger you are looking at a power house which ran right out of the gate, will and can be a world wide power house of the internet. The share offer of 31 dollars a share is just not acceptable. Give Microsoft a counter offer now and make it public and open to all other suitors that we are looking for a share price between 46 to 50 dollars a share.
ALL INVESTORS MUST STAND THEIR GROUND NOW AND VOICE THEIR OPINIONS AND INTENT TO YAHOO'S BOARD AND ALL SUITORS NOW! THIS MESSAGE BOARD IS A GOOD START. AS OF RIGHT NOW SPEAK UP AND SHARE YOUR THOUFHTS AND DEMANDS TO THE BOARD THAT THEY WORK FOR THE INVESTORS AND OWNERS OF THE BOARD AND NOT THEMSELVES. WHERE DID BLOOMBERG GET THIS INFORMATION FROM THAT YAHOO INVESTORS WOULD RATHER TAKE A 31 DOLLAR OFFER THEN FIGHT WITH GOOGLE? THE MEDIA AND CERTAIN ANALYST ARE STATING THAT YAHOO IS FINISHED AND GONE! ALSO THAT MICROSOFT IS DONE AND GONE WITHOUT THIS DEAL. YES IT WOULD MAKE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND MOST LIKELY MAKE THE BIGGEST INTERNET POWER HOUSE OF SEARCH AND ADD COMPANY IN THE WORLD AND BE WELCOME COMPETITION BUT THESE 2 COMPANIES ARE NOT TOAST IF IT DONT. TELL THE BOARD THAT WE DEMAND THAT THEY LOOK AT ALL OPTIONS AND SUITORS THAT WILL INCREASE YAHOO'S MAXIUM VALUE NOW NOT LATER AND ALSO ASK FOR MR. JACK MA'S IMPUT FROM ALLIBBA WHICH YAHOO OWNS 40% OF THAT COMPANY AND IS A VERY BIG ASSET FOR YAHOO IN THE FUTURE. ALSO ASK FOR IMPUT STATEMENTS FROM YAHOO JAPAN AND OTHER PARTNERSHIPS OF MAJOR VALUE FOR THEIRS. WE MUST SPEAK UP AND MAKE SURE THIS BOARD LISTENS TO US NOW SO WE RECEIVE MAXIUM VALUE. DONT LET ANYONE FOOL YOU! OR SCARE YOU INTO SELLING AT THIS MOMENT.JUST BY THE TACTICS ALONE WE KNOW YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE IS WORTH MUCH HIGHER.
WE SHOULD ALSO ASK THE SEC TO WATCH YAHOO'S SHARE PRICE FOR MANIPULATION AS THESE TALKS GO FORWARD.
IT IS THE DUTY OF THE BOARD TO FIGHT FOR MAXIUM VALUE AND TO LOOK OUT FOR SHAREHOLDER AND INVESTORS INTEREST NOT THEIR OWN EGO DEMANDS. BEGIN NOW BY SPEAKING UP TO THIS MESSAGE AND DEMAND TO THE BOARD THAT THEY OPEN FORMAL TALKS WITH ALL SUITORS AS OF RIGHT NOW! TELL MICROSOFT THAT THE BID PRICE IS MUCH TOO LOW AND HAVE YAHOO AT THIS TIME OFFER A COUNTER OFFER IN THE HIGH 40'S. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME

Google Offers to Help Yahoo

This could mean some serious news to the Yahoo shares holders. The odds of this stock going down today and in the future have just increased. There is still a likely hood that Google could try and outbid Microsoft and in that case the stock price will rise but I would have to say this is definitely an interesting wrench.

Rad more here http://online.wsj.com/

Saturday, February 2, 2008

It looks like we have THE BEST CASE SCENARIO for a short play on Yahoo


I just read the best news I could have seen in this weekend - just broke an hour ago:

Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said it may take "quite a bit of time" to weigh its strategic options, including keeping the company independent, following Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) $45 billion (23 billion pounds) offer to buy the company.

In a weekend posting on the company's Web site, Yahoo said it was undertaking a deliberate review of Microsoft's unsolicited offer to pay Yahoo shareholders either $31 in cash, or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock.

The review "will include evaluating all of the Company's strategic alternatives including maintaining Yahoo! as an independent company," the posting said. "A review process like this is fluid, and it can take quite a bit of time."

In response to a frequently asked question about whether Yahoo would seek proposals from other companies, also posted on its Web site, the company said it was going to evaluate all options.

Analysts cited Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Viacom Inc (VIAb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among possible bidders, although they also said few companies had the balance sheet to compete with Microsoft or were as natural a fit for Yahoo.

Microsoft + Yahoo = Oracle + BEA System

I am betting on the fact the hostile takeovers work like most negotions. One person offers, the other person says no way, and then they come to some consensus.

I am also betting that this will take some time. I am reviewing what happened with Oracle's hostile takeover of BEA systems and I am seeing a interesting pattern. That after the euphoria of the initial offer, the stock tanked and then went to the negotiated price.

Look at this chart I got online - the tab KL is where the unsolicited offer was made. Notice the price after months of negations , then they approve the merger at point A.

Friday, February 1, 2008

More thoughts On MicroHoo - The Microsoft Yahoo Merger

The two together will make them #2. Companies only care about marketing to the lion-share which is Google and if they had to make a choice in a bad economy they would choose Google.

Watch this deal closely - several months from now - you will see this was not a good idea. Microsoft doesn't need to pay 44 billion for the #2 spot when they get there by web enabling Microsoft office and outlook.

This will be look at as a bad move by Microsoft. I know they can afford some miscues but Yahoo users will abandon this MicroHoo combination because both companies are not interested in securing web users anonymity.

They feel as if Microsoft is big brother. Yahoo had bad press recently with keeping users identities from the Chinese government. I think it caused someone to loose there life.

Google gives their users the ability to turn off web search history and have been very vocal about keeping web surfing patterns private.

Trust me if this deal happens MicroHoo will find out that a lot of users will migrate to Google.

What is to become of us should Microsoft succeed in buying out Yahoo?

I found this on the Yahoo Answers board. It's always interesting to see what the actual users of Yahoo think. I found 5 negative comments and no positive comments. Not a good sign. Read the questions and answers below or view them online at http://answers.yahoo.com/

-----------------
What is to become of us should Microsoft succeed in buying out Yahoo?
Answers (5)

1st Time Mummy 2 be


It would mena a million new rules and regulations and then they would close it down anyway

me
Probably will be for the worst.

vybes_so...


Yahoo would be moved to www.MSN.crap

zedkay


we might end up with hotyahoo.com

claire


It'll probably mean that mircosoft get rid of this place and the yahoo home page get's changed to the mircosoft page and yahoo looses everything unique to them and they might scrap Yahoo! Mail which i really hope wont happen

Making A Move - Buying EBAY & Betting Yahoo Won't Accept Deal

Okay took some 1 and 3% loses and liquidated some funds to make a move. It makes sense that Google may try to buy EBAY to counter Microsoft's move. It also makes sense that Yahoo might not accept this deal since there stock Microsoft would be getting this company at a steal and this jump in price is also kind of unjustified since the purchase wont go through until the middle of the year.

Microsoft/Yahoo what it means for Google

Today's big news is that Yahoo is being taken over by Microsoft. Since both of these stocks would not be good trades lets look at Google and what this means for the search giant.

It means that the stock price will go down in the next week or two. Maybe by as much as 100 points. So you have a good shorting opportunity on this stock if your can get in today around $560.

In the short term people will think that Microsoft/Yahoo merger is a good thing. It is not. Let me be clear Microsoft's search is horrible and its community tools are very lacking (I have used them on many occasions and can speak as an expert on this topic). The people who are loyal to Yahoo will hate changing over to MSN mail or any of the MSN tools. There will be chaos. Eventually earnings will get released and this merger will still be hanging on the books.

Now lets look at Google. Their tools are incredibly robust and easy to use. They are becoming the champions of securing your search patterns and giving the user control of if a history is kept on them or not. Google is making it easier and easier to implement ads on your personal site or blog to generate revenue. They are way ahead of the curve and this will be brought to the forefront by some analyst who thinks they are awesome for figuring his out.

Listen folks lots of people have Yahoo mail and Microsoft Office is a great app that I hope they take online one day but both of these companies do not equal Google. Take it from n objective technies point of view. Sell Google short in the near term and pick up once this news dies down about how wonderful MicroHoo is going to be.