Sonic Money is a sounding board for my personal investments strategies and stock research. It will be updated in real time. As I make moves in these financial waters you will be able to either join in or watch from the sidelines. Either way my goal is to make money every day through picking long term stock winners, shorting stocks that shouldn't be posting gains, betting on sectors that are experiencing tremendous growth, and posting profits that make people take notice.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

It looks like we have THE BEST CASE SCENARIO for a short play on Yahoo


I just read the best news I could have seen in this weekend - just broke an hour ago:

Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said it may take "quite a bit of time" to weigh its strategic options, including keeping the company independent, following Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) $45 billion (23 billion pounds) offer to buy the company.

In a weekend posting on the company's Web site, Yahoo said it was undertaking a deliberate review of Microsoft's unsolicited offer to pay Yahoo shareholders either $31 in cash, or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock.

The review "will include evaluating all of the Company's strategic alternatives including maintaining Yahoo! as an independent company," the posting said. "A review process like this is fluid, and it can take quite a bit of time."

In response to a frequently asked question about whether Yahoo would seek proposals from other companies, also posted on its Web site, the company said it was going to evaluate all options.

Analysts cited Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Viacom Inc (VIAb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among possible bidders, although they also said few companies had the balance sheet to compete with Microsoft or were as natural a fit for Yahoo.

Microsoft + Yahoo = Oracle + BEA System

I am betting on the fact the hostile takeovers work like most negotions. One person offers, the other person says no way, and then they come to some consensus.

I am also betting that this will take some time. I am reviewing what happened with Oracle's hostile takeover of BEA systems and I am seeing a interesting pattern. That after the euphoria of the initial offer, the stock tanked and then went to the negotiated price.

Look at this chart I got online - the tab KL is where the unsolicited offer was made. Notice the price after months of negations , then they approve the merger at point A.